http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=158871

 

THIS year's United Nations (UN) climate-change summit in Durban, which already promises only modest steps for cutting greenhouse gas pollution, could be in more trouble unless host SA improves its image.

 

The 190-nation gathering that starts later this month follows years of fraught attempts to win agreement on strong emission curbs from big polluting countries.

Expectations of success are already low for the talks, where parties will try to find a way of saving the Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which expires at the end of next year. However, analysts expect the talks to produce a face-saving measure to prevent the Kyoto deal from dying in Durban.

A series of diplomatic gaffes by SA has eroded confidence in its ability to help shape the summit's outcome.

SA also has strained relations with major western powers, which are usually major funding sources of global policies, but are increasingly reluctant to allocate any money due to debt worries in the euro zone and the US.

SA has found itself on the wrong side of the mainstream argument over Libya and Côte d'Ivoire. Western powers also raised their eyebrows when Pretoria blocked a visit by the Dalai Lama to please China, its biggest trading partner.

Analysts recall the Copenhagen climate talks of 2009, which were roundly regarded as a failure, in part because the host country could not do the heavy lifting to broker the deals required.

"I think they are afraid of leading and that makes them come across as not very strong," says Ferrial Adam, a climate and energy campaigner at Greenpeace Africa. "SA has been playing a cautious role. I think they have been looking at what happened in Copenhagen and don't want a diplomatic disaster to happen here." Mr Adam says.

Last year's Cancun talks were regarded as a relative success with many negotiators crediting Mexican envoys for pushing the process forward. "The role of the host is not a prerequisite for a good or bad outcome. It comes down more to the actual individual who is the environment minister and whether they take an active role," says Kirsty Hamilton, an associate fellow of the energy, environment and development programme at London-based think-tank Chatham House.

Water and Environmental Affairs Minister Edna Molewa is a highly regarded political operative in SA but has almost no experience in global negotiations.

International Relations and Co- operation Minister Maite Nkoana- Mashabane has more international experience, having served as an ambassador, but is not seen as a force in regional or global diplomacy. It was Ms Nkoana-Mashabane's diplomacy that came in for western criticism when SA supported autocratic leaders in Libya, Syria and Côte d'Ivoire. The refusal to allow the Dalai Lama, seen as a dangerous separatist by Beijing, to attend the 80th birthday of Archbishop Desmond Tutu, also provoked an outcry.

Foreign Policy magazine dubbed SA a "cowardly lion". Critics said the African National Congress has compromised ideals it embraced in the fight to end apartheid. "Principles have fallen to such an extent that nobody expects them to do the right thing," a diplomat in Pretoria says.

While cosy South African-Chinese ties may not cause many waves in the international economy, they could undermine the climate talks, with China being the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Some developed nations, including the US, want China to make its carbon intensity reduction target part of a UN deal before they sign up for deep and legally binding cuts.

In theory, SA could be an ideal host, serving as a bridge between the developed and developing world, as well as being the voice for the quickly emerging African continent.

That is the line being espoused by diplomats on the record, with the likes of British Climate Change Minister Greg Barker saying he is "incredibly impressed" with SA.

A note from HSBC pinned modest hopes on SA as a negotiator for its powerful developing partners in the Brics group - Brazil, Russia India and China. "Our view is that on balance, key emerging economies in the Brics bloc will not force a breakdown of negotiations on the soil of one of their members," it said.

Many envoys are reserving judgment on SA, but sources close to the European Commission say if Durban is a failure, SA may be held responsible. Reuters