http://www.rtcc.org/living/who-knows-if-climate-change-is-to-blame-but-sandy-is-a-wake-up-call/

 

Whether or not Hurricane Sandy is the direct consequence of climate change is a moot point.

 

But New York has already been identified as a climate vulnerable city and the Frankenstorm could prove to be an unwelcome demonstration of weaknesses that were not expected to be exposed for some time.

It might not be as ferocious as hurricanes that have made landfall further down the US Eastern Seaboard but its 75mph winds are likely to run for two days. And a storm surge exacerbated by a high tide will replicate some of the most likely challenges predicted for New York in a world beyond the estimated safe level of warming of 2°C.

The current science on the interaction between climate change and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and storminess in general, is far from conclusive. Linking one weather event specifically to climate change simply cannot be done robustly.

What can be said on the science is that a trend is emerging. In warm years, there are more big cyclones. Therefore the warming earth will likely exhibit a growing number of these big storms.

The science behind Hurricane Sandy, is complicated further by the addition of an Arctic cold front that has wrapped itself around the hurricane. The result is a very large storm hundreds of miles across. So is New York ready for this kind of extreme weather event and a future riddled with increased storminess?

A report by Cornell University, assessing the potential changes on New York State under a scenario with 3°C of warming by 2050, said that storm surges could flood subways and other transportation tunnels within an hour. At the time of writing, New York City's subway is shut down in anticipation of the Hurricane Sandy's arrival.

The report also recommended moving crucial utility infrastructure to higher ground, advice that appears to have been taken with one new power plant being rebuilt four feet higher above the ground.

Earlier this year the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said that the 2005 hurricane season alone had cost the US emergency services $18 billion. Dealing with the new reality using a 'business as usual' mindset, was no longer working.

"We cannot afford to continue to respond to disasters and deal with the consequences under the current model. Risk that is not mitigated, that is not considered in return on investment calculations, often time steps up false economies," said Craig Fugate FEMA's Administrator.